North Carolina’s Growing Housing Crunch: What to Expect by 2030

Over the next few years, experts predict a significant housing shortage in North Carolina. From 2025 to 2030, the state is expected to welcome many new residents—both from within the U.S. and from other countries—while also expanding its job market. Below is a straightforward overview of the evidence, the areas most likely to be affected, and the main reasons for this growing housing crunch.

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1. Why Do Experts Predict a Housing Shortage?

Population Growth Outpacing Home Building

• According to North Carolina’s Office of State Budget and Management, the state’s population is set to grow by about one million people between 2020 and 2030 (OSBM, 2022).
• Carolina Demography reports that popular regions like the Triangle (Wake, Durham, and Orange Counties) and the Charlotte–Mecklenburg area will need tens of thousands of new homes by 2030 (Carolina Demography, 2021).

Construction Is Not Keeping Up

• The Home Builders Association of Raleigh-Wake County estimates that new home construction is running 15–20% below what’s needed to keep up with demand (Home Builders Association of Raleigh-Wake County, 2023).
• Rising costs for building materials, worker shortages, and delays in getting permits make it harder for builders to catch up (Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, 2022).

Growing Need for Affordable Housing

• The North Carolina Housing Finance Agency points out a shortage of over 900,000 affordable units statewide (NCHFA, 2022).
• Even though this number focuses on low-cost housing, it signals that the overall need for housing is likely to grow faster than the supply.

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2. Areas Expecting the Biggest Shortages

1. Wake County (Raleigh) and Nearby Counties
   • Raleigh is one of the country’s fastest-growing cities, thanks to technology, research centers, and universities. Neighboring areas like Johnston County are also feeling the pressure from the spillover of new residents.
2. Mecklenburg County (Charlotte)
   • Charlotte’s strong job market attracts many new workers. UNC Charlotte Urban Institute projects the region will need about 100,000 new homes by 2030 to keep up with population growth (UNC Charlotte Urban Institute, 2022).
   • Surrounding counties like Cabarrus and Union also need more housing to serve commuters and newcomers.
3. Durham County (Durham)
   • Durham is part of the booming Research Triangle Park area. Tech and research jobs bring in new residents, requiring thousands of additional homes (Carolina Demography, 2021).
4. Buncombe County (Asheville)
   • Asheville remains popular with retirees, tourists, and remote workers who love its mountain setting and arts scene. A local report says the area may be short nearly 13,000 homes by 2030 (Asheville Area Chamber of Commerce, 2022).
5. New Hanover County (Wilmington)
   • Wilmington’s beachside location attracts retirees, professionals, and vacationers. The high demand for housing has led to a shortage of available homes (NCHFA, 2022).

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3. What’s Causing the Shortage?

1. Job Growth
   • Industries like technology, finance, life sciences, and manufacturing are rapidly expanding in Raleigh-Durham, Charlotte, and Wilmington. New jobs bring new residents who need places to live.
2. People Moving from Other States
   • Many people are moving from more expensive states like New York or California. These newcomers often have more buying power, driving up home prices and reducing the number of available houses.
3. Limited New Construction
   • Builders face high costs for materials, supply-chain delays, and a shortage of skilled workers.
   • Local zoning rules and lengthy permit processes slow down new building projects.
4. Rise of Short-Term Rentals
   • Some homes are turned into vacation rentals instead of long-term housing, which reduces the number of available apartments and houses for local workers (Joint Center for Housing Studies, 2022).
5. Older Homes in Need of Repairs
   • Many homes across the state are old and need updates before they can be rented or sold. Without enough money to fix these properties, they remain unavailable.
6. Prices Growing Faster Than Wages
   • House prices in many counties have climbed faster than people’s incomes (National Association of Realtors, 2023). This makes it tough for first-time buyers and renters to find affordable options, even though the state needs more housing overall.

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4. Why It Matters

A shortage of homes can drive up housing costs, making it harder for people to find affordable places to live. It can also hurt local economies if workers cannot move to areas where jobs are growing. Experts suggest that solutions include speeding up the building process, encouraging the construction of homes people can afford, and updating older buildings. If these issues are not addressed, North Carolina’s housing crunch is likely to become even more serious in the coming years.

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References

• Asheville Area Chamber of Commerce. (2022). Housing Needs Assessment: 2022–2030.
• Carolina Demography. (2021). Population Growth Projections for the Triangle and Charlotte Regions.
• Home Builders Association of Raleigh-Wake County. (2023). Housing Starts and Construction Forecast.
• Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. (2022). The State of the Nation’s Housing.
• National Association of Realtors. (2023). Housing Market Indicators: Price Appreciation vs. Income Growth.
• North Carolina Housing Finance Agency. (2022). The State of Housing in North Carolina: Affordability and Supply Gaps.
• Office of State Budget and Management. (2022). Population Overview & Projections: 2020–2030.
• UNC Charlotte Urban Institute. (2022). Housing Charlotte: Projected Needs by 2030.