A quick analysis using the data from NC’s Office of State Budget and Management. The data lags by about 2 years, but suggests future trends and is in alignment with development news.
I’m looking at just the top 10 counties in North Carolina by annual percentage population increase in years 2020, 2021, and 2022, and 2023.
Top 10 NC Counties by Population Increase 2020-2023
| Avg Annual Population Increase | County | July 2020 Population | July 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | Brunswick | 138,756 | 160,440 |
| 3.9% | Franklin | 69,121 | 77,561 |
| 3.6% | Pender | 60,680 | 67,464 |
| 3.4% | Johnston | 218,141 | 241,049 |
| 3.4% | Currituck | 28,421 | 31,396 |
| 2.8% | Lincoln | 87,299 | 94,819 |
| 2.4% | Union | 239,925 | 257,682 |
| 2.4% | Iredell | 188,250 | 202,038 |
| 2.4% | Moore | 100,585 | 107,861 |
| 2.2% | Cabarrus | 227,580 | 242,880 |
Currituck County stands out in this list for being the smallest and the only one NOT in the halo of a NC metro area such as Raleigh-Durham, Wilmington, Winston-Salem, and Charlotte. Currituck is in the far Northeast corner of the state and is more of a suburb of Virginia Beach.
The chart below shows the same counties from left (highest % increase) to right (lowest % increase). The bars indicate the 2023 population for each county, with the red portion being the increase since 2020.
Of course, counties are related, and population increase in one county might be driven by job growth in a neighboring county. Grouping the same Top 10 counties into their neighboring metro area:
Top 10 Growing NC Counties Grouped by Metro Area
| Nearby City | 2020 Population | 2023 Population | 3 yr increase | 3 yr % increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Lincoln, Union, Iredale, Moore, Cabarrus | 843,639 | 905,280 | 61,641 | 7.3% |
| Raleigh Franklin, Johnston, Moore | 387,847 | 426,471 | 38,624 | 10.0% |
| Wilmington Brunswick, Pender | 199,436 | 227,904 | 28,468 | 14.3% |
As expected, Charlotte as the biggest city has the greatest increase in nearby county population. But the Wilmington area will likely experience the greatest demand pressure to to the high percentage increase in population.
Summary
This quick analysis confirms our target areas: suburbs and exurbs around the urban centers in North Carolina. As an example, New Hanover county, which contains Wilmington, NC grew an annual average of 1.8% in population 2020-2023, but the neighboring Brunswick and Pender counties grew annually 5% and 3.6%, respectively. Notably missing is Winston-Salem and surrounding areas, which we like for multifamily and neighborhood shopping centers.
Doug Kline, PhD, has held income properties in North Carolina for more than 20 years. He holds a North Carolina broker’s license, and is a member of the National Association of Realtors and the Triangle Real Estate Investors Association. A lifelong learner, he holds an MBA and a PhD in business, and continues his education by attending meetings of the Society of Exchange Counselors and the National Counsel of Exchangors. In addition to his extensive real estate activities, Doug enjoyed a successful career in academia, achieving the rank of Full Professor in the Cameron School of Business at UNC Wilmington. He was honored with research and teaching awards, served as Director of the MS Computer Science and Information Systems program, and was awarded the endowed position Distinguished Professor of Information Systems.