Increased Real Estate Opportunities in Non-Urban Locations

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1. What’s the Evidence That People Are Moving Away from Big Cities?

U.S. Census Data

• Recent U.S. Census Bureau reports show many major cities lost population from 2020 to 2021, while many surrounding suburban and exurban counties grew.
• For instance, areas like Manhattan (New York County) and San Francisco saw noticeable population drops, while suburbs in Florida, Texas, and North Carolina saw gains.

Moving and Postal Service Data

• Major moving companies (like United Van Lines) noted increases in moves leaving large urban areas (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago) and heading to smaller, less dense states (Idaho, South Carolina, Florida).
• Change-of-address records from the U.S. Postal Service show similar trends, with more people shifting out of city centers.

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2. Why Are People Moving Away from Cities?

1. Lower Housing Costs
   • City homes and apartments are often very expensive. Suburban and exurban areas typically offer bigger spaces at lower prices.
2. Remote Work
   • Working from home became more common due to the pandemic, making it easier to live farther from company offices.
   • Many jobs no longer require a daily commute, so people look for homes in places that better fit their lifestyle.
3. Lifestyle Preferences
   • Some people want a quieter environment with more green space, yards, and family-friendly neighborhoods.
   • Having extra rooms for home offices or personal space became a priority.
4. Cost of Living
   • Beyond housing, things like groceries, utilities, and property taxes can be cheaper in suburban or exurban areas.
5. Demographic Changes
   • Some retirees look for a slower pace of life or warmer climates outside big cities.
   • Parents often move when children reach school age, seeking suburban schools and neighborhoods.

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3. Benefits of Living in Non-Urban Areas

1. More Space
   • Bigger yards, more rooms, and generally larger homes are common outside city centers.
2. Health and Well-Being
   • Many find a quieter environment and less congestion helps lower stress.
   • Living near nature or parks can promote a more active, outdoor lifestyle.
3. Financial Advantages
   • Not only can housing be cheaper, but property taxes and daily living costs may be lower.
4. Community Feel
   • Some suburbs offer close-knit communities with family-oriented amenities like playgrounds and community events.
5. Flexible Commute
   • People who still need to visit the city for work can often do so just a few days a week, thanks to hybrid work arrangements.

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4. What Does This Mean for Retail Sales?

1. Urban vs. Suburban Shopping
   • Because fewer people are commuting into downtown areas each day, stores and restaurants in city centers have seen fewer customers.
   • Suburban shopping centers, on the other hand, have bounced back more quickly since more people are staying—and spending money—closer to home.
2. Data Trends
   • Location analytics (e.g., Placer.ai) show foot traffic dropped in downtown shopping districts in 2020–2021, while suburban malls and big-box stores started recovering sooner.
   • Large retailers like Walmart, Target, and Costco have reported stronger suburban store sales during this period.
3. Hybrid and Online Shopping
   • The move to online shopping has continued, but suburban stores adapted quickly with curbside pickup and other convenient options.
   • Downtown small businesses, however, suffered due to reduced foot traffic and fewer office workers.

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5. How Does This Affect Housing Prices?

1. City Prices
   • Some major cities (e.g., San Francisco, New York) saw slower home-price growth or even declines in certain areas, particularly for small apartments.
   • City rents dipped in 2020–2021 but started rebounding in some places by late 2022.
2. Suburban and Exurban Boom
   • Suburban and exurban housing prices have climbed more quickly, with many families competing for a limited number of homes.
   • Remote work made once “too far” exurban areas more appealing, sometimes leading to double-digit price increases.
3. Limited Supply
   • Because so many people want suburban homes and new construction can’t keep up, prices have risen.
   • Bidding wars and higher offers have driven up costs in popular suburban markets.

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Summary

In recent years, particularly during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, a growing number of Americans have moved away from big-city centers and toward nearby suburbs or even more distant exurban areas. They cite reasons like lower costs, remote-work flexibility, and a desire for more space or a calmer lifestyle. This movement has helped retail stores in suburban areas recover faster from pandemic slowdowns, while city-centered shops and restaurants are still catching up. Housing prices in popular suburban and exurban regions have risen significantly because of higher demand, whereas some urban markets have leveled off or seen slower growth. Overall, this outward migration seems likely to continue as long as remote work and the desire for extra space remain strong trends.

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References

1. U.S. Census Bureau
   • 2022 County Population Estimates: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest.html
2. United Van Lines
   • National Movers Study: https://www.unitedvanlines.com/newsroom/movers-study
3. Placer.ai
   • Retail Foot Traffic Insights: https://www.placer.ai/
4. Kastle Systems – “Back to Work Barometer”
   • Office Occupancy Rates: https://www.kastle.com/safety-wellness/getting-america-back-to-work/
5. Zillow Research
   • Home Value & Market Reports: https://www.zillow.com/research/
6. National Association of Realtors
   • Existing Home Sales Data: https://www.nar.realtor/
7. Redfin
   • Housing Market Data & Statistics: https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/
8. Apartment List
   • National Rent Report: https://www.apartmentlist.com/research